(A1) Florida Panthers vs. (W1) New York Islanders
Florida has to be the feel-good story of the year. Led by Aleksandr Barkov and the ageless wonder Jaromir Jagr, they managed to capture first in their division. Jussi Jokenen posted 60 points for the second time in his career, while both Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trochek continue to post career highs. Defensively, 20 year-old Aaron Ekbald leads the way, as he continues to play and look like a 10 year vet. The rest of the defense has been solid. Roberto Luongo starts in goal, as he continues to defy aging (just like Jagr). Despite all this, their possession is a bit of a concern, as they finished 17th with a 49.9% Fenwick. New York is led by John Tavares (70 points) and Kyle Okposo (64). Depth-wise, the Islanders are pretty good, but it's been a bit of a quite year. Defensively, Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk are front an center. They will be without Travis Hamonic for a bit, as he's injured. Speaking of injuries, goaltender Jaroslav Halak is still out, forcing Thomas Griess to take the reigns. The Islanders were slightly worst than the Panthers in the possession category, as they finished with a 49.5% Fenwick, good enough for 18th. The Islanders will miss Halak in net, as it looks like the Panthers will be the ones to advance to the next round. Florida Panthers in six.
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (A3) Detroit Red Wings
Initially I don't know what to make of this series. Tampa Bay is hurting a bit, as Steven Stamkos is out for at least another month while Tyler Johnson comes into the series hurt. Jonathan Drouin is back though, as their offense does get a boost. Hedman still leads the way on the defense, but they still have Anton Stralman on the shelf. They still have pretty good depth all around. Ben Bishop starts in net, and does give them stability in goal. Tampa Bay was a top-10 possession team during the season, as they finished with a 51.6% Fenwick. Detroit is still a team in transition, as they go from the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg to Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist, and Tomas Tatar. They just squeaked into the playoffs in the last weekend of the season, and it shows, as only Zetterberg cracked 50 points (he finished with an even 50). Their defense has also taken a step back, which isn't a good sign. Even goaltending has questions, as Petr Mrazek looks to have taken over for Jimmy Howard, yet Howard is starting the series. Detroit was middle-of-the-pack in possession this year, finishing with a 50.3% Fenwick. There is a motiving factor for the Red Wings though, as it looks like this is Datsyuk's last NHL playoff run. Despite that and the couple key injuries, the Lightning should be good enough to repeat least year's result. Tampa Bay Lightning in six.
(M1) Washington Capitals vs. (W2) Philadelphia Flyers
Washington cruised this season into the top spot and a President's Trophy win. Offensively, Alex Ovechkin reached 50 goals again and Nicklas Backstrom reached 70 points for the third straight year. A pleasant surprised was the breakout of Evgeni Kuznetsov, who led the team with 77 points. Their defense is pretty good and the core it is still young enough to proved stability for years to come. Braden Holtby has been outstanding in net, posting a 2.20 GAA, 0.922 SV%, and tying the record in wins with 48. Washington finished the season top-10 in possession, as their Fenwick was 51.7%. Philadelphia struggle during the year, and managed to slip into the last wildcard spot during the final weekend of the regular season. Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds led the way offensively, as they both cracked the 60-point barrier. Brayden Schenn and Jakub Voracek both cracked 50 points. Shayne Gostisbehere was the talk of the defense, as the rookie posted 17-29-46 in 64 games. It's hard to be praiseful of the rest of their defense, as it ranges from old (Mark Striet) to not very good (almost everyone else). Steve Mason has proven to be a bonafide starter after years of being questionable. The Flyers were exact middle of the pack possession-wise, as they finished with an even 50.0% Fenwick, good enough for 15th overall. To Philadelphia's credit, they will be playing with heavy hearts, as their owner Ed Snider recently passed away. Overall, and as much as their history points to it, I can't see the Capitals fall flat in the first round. Washington Capitals in five.
(M2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (M3) New York Rangers
This is a tale of two teams, as Pittsburgh look to have new life after a coaching change, while New York is seeing their cup window close more and more. As expected, Pittsburgh does come in to the playoffs a top-heavy team, but this time, those pieces are relatively healthy. I say relatively, as a big piece in goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is still out with a concussion, forcing Jeff Zatkoff into the net. Other than that, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, and co should be firing on all cylinders, as they ended the season with a 53.1% Fenwick (good for fourth) and top three in goals scored. New York hasn't been the team they were expected to be this year, as they went from definite second in the division to just barely avoiding the slip into wildcard territory. Offensively, Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard, and Derek Stepan led the charge, and will need to do so if New York has any chance of advancing (even after factoring out Rick Nash, whose down year might be more permanent than temporary given is age and playing style). Yandle and McDonagh will have to carry the defense, as the rest have been shaky this year. This season, New York's Fenwick was 48.5%, which is not what you want from a team looking to contend for the Cup (it was ranked 21st overall, the worst of any playoff team). The only saving grace for New York is in net, as Henrik Lundqvist is Henrik Lundqvist. He should be able to steal at least one game for them. Overall, the Penguins are the hotter team coming in, and I expect them to keep on rolling. Pittsburgh Penguins in five.
Note: All advance stat via puckon.net and are score-adjusted
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